Tinbergen Seminar – Tweets to ballots: Refugee inflows and natives’ reactions

We examine the impact of the opening of refugee reception centers on natives’ social media activity and voting behavior in the Netherlands during the large and unexpected refugee inflow of 2015-2016. Using over 100 million geocoded tweets and a difference-in-differences approach, we find a short-lived surge in refugee salience on social media, accompanied by a decline in expressed support for refugees and increased discussions about religious minorities, particularly Islam. Linking social media salience to voting behavior, we analyze detailed voting data and document a significant rise in anti-immigration voting near newly established reception centers. This effect diminishes over time and with distance from the centers. Furthermore, we show that areas with a strong initial salience response to refugees drive increased support for anti-immigration parties, while areas with high pre-existing refugee salience exhibit no such increase in anti-immigration votes. Joint paper with Paul Bose.