Tinbergen Seminar – When institutions interact: how the effects of unemployment insurance are shaped by retirement policies

We show that the non-employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) for older workers depend critically on retirement policy. Using German data, we document large bunching in UI inflows at the age that allows workers to claim their pension following UI expiration. Inflows respond strongly to several UI and pension reforms. We probe the implications of these behavioral responses using a dynamic model and find that Germany’s UI and retirement policy changes had substantial effects on the unemployment rate of older workers. Furthermore, we calculate large fiscal externalities from extending UI for older workers, especially under generous retirement policies.